Financial Spread Betting: 09/01/2014

Thursday, September 25, 2014

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Britain's FTSE 100 lagged all major European indices on Thursday, as concern that Britain and the United States will soon tighten monetary policy pulled down mining and energy stocks, as well as companies exposed to the UK property market.

Shares (Berlin: DI6.BE - news) in oil major BP and global mining company BHP Billiton were the biggest drag on the FTSE 100, as oil and copper prices fell on expectations U.S. monetary policy will tighten at a time of sluggish demand from emerging markets.

Dollar-priced commodities have been hit by a surge in the U.S. currency, now at a four-year high against a basket of major currencies. Investors are positioning for the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programme next month, which some feel may pave the way for future interest rate hikes.

Shares in basic materials and energy companies knocked a combined 25 points off the FTSE 100, which was down 25.23 points, or 0.4 percent, at 6,681.04 points at 1312 GMT.

"The FTSE's weighting is so tilted towards oil and mining that it skews the performance significantly," said Shai Heffetz, managing director of spreadbetting firm InterTrader. "The UK economy, however, is doing well, so I'd go for a discrete selection of stocks and sectors rather than the FTSE as a whole."

He cited British supermarkets as an example of a sector due for a recovery after its recent selloff, which has seen shares in market leader Tesco (Xetra: 852647 - news) halve in price over one year.

Britain's biggest sporting goods retailer, Sports Direct, is also betting that shares in Tesco, down 0.7 percent at 1312 GMT, will stop falling. The firm said on Thursday it has written a put option on a small stake in the embattled supermarket chain.

BOE RATE HIKE GETTING NEARER

The FTSE 100 slightly extended losses in the afternoon after Governor Mark Carney said the Bank of England was getting nearer to raising interest rates.

The comment hit shares in real estate companies such as Hammerson (Other OTC: HMSNF - news) and builder Persimmon (Other OTC: PSMMF - news) , which stand to lose if higher borrowing costs puncture demand for UK property.

Securequity sales trader Jawaid Afsar expected the FTSE to fall further before rebounding to hit a record high of 7,000 points by the end of 2014.

"Given that this is a traditionally weak period in equity markets, I would not want to chase this market higher and would be happy to buy in the low 6,600 points area," Afsar said. "However, I still favour a move to 7,000 by year-end," he said.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

TOKYO (Reuters) - U.S. air strikes in Syria left Asian stock markets jaded on Wednesday, setting the stage for another soft session for European shares.

The dollar was kept in check after U.S. yields fell on geopolitical concerns and dovish statements by a Federal Reserve official.

Spreadbetters saw European equities starting lower, forecasting London's FTSE (.FTSE) to open down as much as 0.3 percent, Germany's DAX (.GDAXI) and France's CAX (.FCHI) down 0.2 percent each.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS initially fell to a four-month low after Wall Street's overnight slide, but managed to steady thanks to gains in Chinese shares.

The CSI300 (.CSI300) of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listings climbed 0.9 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) was up 0.8 percent.

Space and defense stocks surged, with the industries enjoying support on hopes they would benefit from deepening reforms in state firms and from more government investment in defence.

On the other hand, Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) shed 0.3 percent and Australian shares (.AXJO) lost 1.1 percent.

The United States and its Arab allies bombed militant groups in Syria for the first time on Tuesday, opening a new front amid shifting Middle East alliances and sapping demand for risk.

"If geopolitical concerns deepen, you can't expect Japanese markets alone to survive. The market could fall up to 10-15 percent at most," said Akiko Miyazaki, director of stocks at Barclays in Tokyo.

The air strikes in Syria also garnered demand for safe-haven government debt and pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower, in turn helping arrest the dollar's recent bull run.

The dollar was down 0.3 percent at 108.58 yen JPY=, after going as low as 108.25 yen overnight.

The greenback has been on the back foot after scaling a six-year high of 109.46 on Friday, receiving an additional knock after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe voiced concern about the economic impact from the currency's recent weakness.

The euro was little changed at $1.2851 EUR=, limping away from the 14-month low of $1.2816 hit Monday.

Fed officials could offer more catalysts for currency markets, after Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said on Tuesday the central bank can keep stimulating the U.S. economy because inflation is posing little threat - comments the markets perceived as dovish.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks later in the day.

"Fed officials will be in focus again today.. .if they do not give any hints that they are in a hurry to hike rates the dollar could lose more ground against the yen and present 109 as a ceiling," said Masafumi Yamamoto, market strategist for Praevidentia Strategy in Tokyo.

In commodities, Brent crude oil slid, with ample global supplies outweighing tensions in the Middle East for the moment. [O/R]

Brent LCOc1 was down 12 cents at $96.73 a barrel.

Gold clung to overnight gains on Wednesday as Asian shares retreated, but investors remained cautious amid a firmer dollar and upbeat U.S. manufacturing data that kept prices near their lowest since January. [GOL/]

Spot gold XAU= held steady at $1,223.40 an ounce.

Copper was stuck near three-year lows, weighed after miner Newmont raised its supply forecast and by signs of fragility in the global economy. [MET/L]

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 inched up 0.1 percent to $6,725.00 a tonne after slumping to the lowest in three months on Monday at $6,707.25 a tonne.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's top shares fell on Tuesday, dragged down by healthcare shares as new U.S. tax rules dented the takeover appeal of companies such as Shire (SHP.L) and AstraZeneca (AZN.L).

Market sentiment was also depressed by surveys showing French business activity contracting again in September and Germany's manufacturing sector growing at its slowest pace since June 2013, casting a shadow over euro zone recovery prospects.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced new rules, effective immediately, which will reduce the tax benefits available to companies which strike tax "inversion" deals. Such deals allow firms to escape high U.S. taxes by reincorporating abroad.

Britain's more favourable tax regime has been a major factor fuelling U.S. takeover interest in London-listed companies, particularly in the healthcare sector.

"This is a big impact and certainly it will put a cap on a lot of M&A or takeover activity... If you look over the last few months a lot of what has been driving the FTSE has been this M&A activity," IG analyst Brenda Kelly said.

The FTSE 350 Healthcare sector index (.FTNMX4530) fell about 3 percent and has risen about 20 percent this year, outpacing all other sectors in the large-cap FTSE 350 index (.FTLC).

Drugmaker Shire, which is being acquired by AbbVie's (ABBV.N), tumbled 6.5 percent. AstraZeneca, which turned down a bid from Pfizer (PFE) this year, fell 5 percent and medical devices manufacturer Smith & Nephew Plc (SN.L), also tipped as a U.S. bid target, shed 3.8 percent.

The broader FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was down 99.16 points, or 1.5 percent, at 6,674.47 points by 1148 GMT (12:48 p.m. BST), extending its retreat from this month's 14-1/2 year high of 6,904.86.

Mid-cap sweetener maker Tate & Lyle (TATE.L) fell 16.3 percent after it said its annual profit would be hit by significant disruption to its supply chain and increased competition for its Splenda sucralose sweetener.

This marks the second high-profile profit warning in Britain this week, but analysts saw these as isolated events that had little broader market significance.

Supermarket retailer Tesco (TSCO.L) suffered its biggest one-day percentage drop since January 2012 on Monday -- down 11.6 percent -- as it cut its profit forecast for the third time in two months after finding a fault in its accounts.

"Tate with its sucralose market and Tesco with its accounting issues -- they are very, very stock specific and I don't think there's necessarily a big read-across to the performance of the UK corporate sector on the back of those two announcements," Exane BNP Paribas global head of equities strategy, Ian Richards, said.

Monday, September 22, 2014

In European Equity Markets stocks fell the most in more than three weeks as China's finance minister damped speculation his government will boost economic stimulus. Commodities producers dropped the most among 19 industry groups. Tesco Plc slumped to its lowest price since 2003 as it started an investigation into its accounting practices after overstating its guidance for first-half earnings by about 250 million pounds ($408 million). Cermaq ASA jumped the most since May 2013 after Mitsubishi Corp. offered to buy it. Merck KGaA rose 4.4 percent after agreeing to purchase Sigma-Aldrich Corp. National benchmark indexes slipped in 16 of the 18 western-European markets today. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index lost 0.9 percent, while Germany's DAX Index fell 0.5 percent and France's CAC 40 Index dropped 0.4 percent. Italy's FTSE MIB Index declined 1.4 percent, the most among the 18 markets.

US Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 22/09/2014

Time: 15:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.4%

Notes: The Existing Home Sales, released by the National Association of Realtors provide an estimated value of housing market conditions. As the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some

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US Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)

EMU ECB President Draghi's Speech

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 22/09/2014

Time: 14:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The European Central Bank's president Mario Draghi was born in 1947 in Rome, Italy. Graduated of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Draghi became the president of the European Central Bank in 2011. As part of his job in the Governing Council he gives press conferences in the back of how the ECB observes the current European economy. President's comments may determine positive or negative the Euro's trend in the short-term. Usually, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).

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Sunday, September 21, 2014

NZ Westpac consumer survey

Location: New Zealand

Date: 22/09/2014

Time: 0 - M

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 121.2

Notes: Confidence measure is an indicator of the mood of consumers or business, released by Westpac New Zealand. It is usually based on a survey during which respondents rate their opinion on different issues concerning current and future economic conditions.

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Friday, September 19, 2014

US CB Leading Indicator (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 19/09/2014

Time: 15:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.9% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: The Leading Indicators released by the Conference Board measures future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction, stock prices and yield curve. It is considered as a measure for economic stability in United States. This event generates some

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US CB Leading Indicator (MoM)

CA Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)

Location: Canada

Date: 19/09/2014

Time: 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.1% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. â Coreâ CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

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CA Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Canada

Date: 19/09/2014

Time: 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.1% / Consensus: 2.1%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of CAD is dragged down by inflation. Bank of Canada ( http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/index.html ) aims at an inflation range (1%-3%). Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

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CA Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Canada

Date: 19/09/2014

Time: 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -0.2% / Consensus: 0.0%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of CAD is dragged down by inflation. Bank of Canada aims at an inflation range (1%-3%). Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

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CA Consumer Price Index (YoY)

CA Consumer Price Index (MoM)

CA Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)

Location: Canada

Date: 19/09/2014

Time: 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.1% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. ��Core�� CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

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CA Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)

Location: Canada

Date: 19/09/2014

Time: 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.7% / Consensus: 1.8%

Notes: Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. ��Core�� CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

#END

CA Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)

Location: Canada

Date: 19/09/2014

Time: 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.7% / Consensus: 1.8%

Notes: Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. â Coreâ CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

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(BBC) The pound has hit a two-year high against the euro and a two-week high against the US dollar, as Scotland voted against independence.

The FTSE 100 share index also opened higher, rising 0.7% to 6,860.

In Asian trade, sterling jumped 0.43% to 1.2743 euros. The pound also jumped nearly 0.8% to $1.6525 against the US dollar, before falling back slightly.

Meanwhile RBS confirmed it would not be moving its registered head office now that independence had been rejected.

"The announcement we made about moving our registered head office to England was part of a contingency plan to ensure certainty and stability for our customers, staff and shareholders should there be a 'Yes' vote," the bank said.

"That contingency plan is no longer required. Following the result it is business as usual for all our customers across the UK and RBS."

In a statement, Lloyds Banking Group said: "The group is proud of its strong Scottish heritage and remains committed to having a significant presence in Scotland. We remain fully focused on supporting households and businesses in Scotland as well as right across the rest of the UK."

Over the past couple of weeks the pound had fallen on fears that Scotland would vote in favour of independence.

Jeremy Cook, economist at World First said: "The obvious risk to the currency markets was a yes and that would have caused a big sell off. Now the markets will go back to concentrating on the fundamentals of the UK economy."

'Focus on growth'

Shares prices in London opened higher, with RBS up more than 3% and Lloyds Banking Group up nearly 2%.

Brenda Kelly from IG Index said: "Investors in these firms will be relieved that management will be able to devote their time to business performance, rather than fretting about contract changes or headquarter moves.

"There is still uncertainty, primarily over the new changes to voting on English issues, but these are of importance primarily to politicians and less so to markets," she added.

The boss of Aberdeen Asset Management, Martin Gilbert, who had previously said that Scotland "would prosper" as an independent country, also welcomed the end to the uncertainty of the last few months.

"Scotland has long been a world leader in business sectors such as oil and gas, whisky and investment and the task now is to grow the rest of the economy with the strong support of politicians of all parties," said Mr Gilbert.

The business lobby group IoD Scotland said the most important thing now was for the country to get together and focus on growth.

"Perhaps the most urgent challenge for our politicians will be to unite Scotland - no matter which way people voted - and focus on building an enterprise culture that will generate the wealth that is desperately needed," it said.

'Disruption avoided'

Analysts also said that the result reduced the risk of the UK leaving the European Union.

"Scottish residents are more in favour of remaining in the EU, compared to the rest of the UK where the majority favour an exit. Overall, major disruption has been avoided and focus can now return to building on the strong economic recovery in progress, " said Azad Zangana, economist at Schroders.

"The Bank of England is now likely to press ahead with raising interest rates early next year in the absence of political uncertainty," he added.

Stock markets in Asia were mostly higher, taking their cues from Wall Street.

US stocks rose on Thursday, one day after the central bank - the US Federal Reserve - said it would maintain its pledge to keep interest rates low. Those comments helped to lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index to record highs.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

JP Leading Economic Index

Location: Japan

Date: 19/09/2014

Time: 06:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 105.9

Notes: The Leading Economic Index released by the Cabinet Office is an economic indicator that consists of 12 indexes such as account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. It shows the performance of the Japanese Economy over the short and mid-term. Generally speaking, a result above 50 is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

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JP Coincident Index

Location: Japan

Date: 19/09/2014

Time: 06:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 109.7

Notes: The Coincident Index released by the Cabinet Office is a single summary statistic that tracks the current state of the Japanese economy. A rise in the index indicates an expansion of economic activity and a decline in the index indicates a contraction in economic activity. Generally speaking, a result that values above 50% signals appreciates (or is bullish for) the JPY, whereas a result that values below 50% is seen as negative (or bearish).

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JP Coincident Index

JP Leading Economic Index

JP All Industry Activity Index (MoM)

Location: Japan

Date: 19/09/2014

Time: 05:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.4%

Notes: The All Industry Activity Index released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry captures the monthly change in overall production by all industries of the Japanese economy. The index indicates the Japanese GDP and the overall growth figures, providing insight into current levels of Japanese economic expansion. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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JP All Industry Activity Index (MoM)

JP Foreign investment in Japan stocks

Location: Japan

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 00:50

Strength: 2/3

Previous: Â¥187.9B

Notes: Securities investment, released by Ministry of Finance, referrers to bonds issued in a domestic market by a foreign entity in the domestic marketâ s currency. The report is released by the Ministry of Finance, detailing the flows from the public sector excluding Bank of Japan. The net data shows the difference of capital inflow and outflow. A positive difference indicates net sales of foreign securities by residents (capital inflow), and a negative difference indicates net purchases of foreign securities by residents (capital outflow).

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JP Foreign investment in Japan stocks

Location: Japan

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 00:50

Strength: 2/3

Previous: ��187.9B

Notes: Securities investment, released by Ministry of Finance, referrers to bonds issued in a domestic market by a foreign entity in the domestic market��s currency. The report is released by the Ministry of Finance, detailing the flows from the public sector excluding Bank of Japan. The net data shows the difference of capital inflow and outflow. A positive difference indicates net sales of foreign securities by residents (capital inflow), and a negative difference indicates net purchases of foreign securities by residents (capital outflow).

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JP Foreign bond investment

Location: Japan

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 00:50

Strength: 2/3

Previous: Â¥763.6B

Notes: Securities investment, released by Ministry of Finance, referrers to bonds issued in a domestic market by a foreign entity in the domestic marketâ s currency. The report is released by the Ministry of Finance, detailing the flows from the public sector excluding Bank of Japan. The net data shows the difference of capital inflow and outflow. A positive difference indicates net sales of foreign securities by residents (capital inflow), and a negative difference indicates net purchases of foreign securities by residents (capital outflow).

#END

JP Foreign bond investment

Location: Japan

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 00:50

Strength: 2/3

Previous: ��763.6B

Notes: Securities investment, released by Ministry of Finance, referrers to bonds issued in a domestic market by a foreign entity in the domestic market��s currency. The report is released by the Ministry of Finance, detailing the flows from the public sector excluding Bank of Japan. The net data shows the difference of capital inflow and outflow. A positive difference indicates net sales of foreign securities by residents (capital inflow), and a negative difference indicates net purchases of foreign securities by residents (capital outflow).

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(Citywire) The pound has surged to a two-year high against the euro and recovered ground against the dollar as the last Scottish referendum poll handed the 'no' camp a six-point lead.

The pound has leapt to trade close to the $1.64 mark, and made gains against the euro, which is trading at £0.7882, its lowest level since July 2012. The pound has now recovered all the ground lost to the dollar since Scottish independence fears gripped currency traders last week.

The FTSE is also up, 35 points higher at 6,816, as Scottish voters head to the polls to vote on independence.

David Rodriguez, quantitative strategist at Daily FX, said traders were likely to be forcing up the price of sterling by closing short positions.

'The lack of actual vote results and a ban on exit polls tells us this is largely a technical correction; many traders have closed GBP-short positions in a hurry on what promises to be big volatility as results come in,' he said.

'It remains clear that the "no" vote is the odds-on favourite, but we cannot dismiss the threat of a major upset if Scottish voters do indeed vote for secession. Foreign exchange traders have sent overnight volatility prices on the British pound to their highest level since the last UK general election in 2010.'

Jasper Lawler, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, also cautioned that the FTSE 100's rally betrayed investor complacency over the vote.

'There seems to be a good amount of complacency in markets on the referendum result which could feed into a more exaggerated response if there is a "yes" vote and perhaps a more muted one should it be "no",' he said.

US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey

Location: United States

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 15:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 28 / Consensus: 23

Notes: The Philadelphia Fed Survey is a spread index of manufacturing conditions (movements of manufacturing) within the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. This survey, served as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is interrelated with the ISM manufacturing Index (Institute for Supply Management) and the index of industrial production. It is also used as a forecast of The ISM Index. Generally, an above-the-expectaitons reading is seen as positive for the USD.

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US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey

US Continuing Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.487M / Consensus: 2.477M

Notes: The Continuing Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor measure the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It presents the strength in the labor market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as negative, or bearish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as positive, or bullish.

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US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 315K / Consensus: 305K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

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US Initial Jobless Claims

US Building Permits (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.052M / Consensus: 1.045M

Notes: The Building Permits released by the US Census Bureau, the Department of Commerce shows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (US economic development). It tends to cause some

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US Housing Starts (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.093M / Consensus: 1.040M

Notes: The Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce is an indicator that tracks how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. For the survey each house and each single apartment are counted as one housing start. The figures include all private and publicly owned units. It indicates movements of the US housing market. Generally, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Continuing Jobless Claims

US Housing Starts (MoM)

US Building Permits (MoM)

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 09:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 3.4% / Consensus: 4.9%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex-fuel released by the National Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the British retail sector excluding fuel. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Pound, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 09:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.6% / Consensus: 4.1%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

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UK Retail Sales (YoY)

UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)

JP Machine Tool Orders (YoY)

Location: Japan

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 07:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 34.1%

Notes: The Prelim Machine Tool Orders released by the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association shows movements in tool orders by manufacturers. It indicates business conditions and the overall economic condition in Japan. Generally speaking, if a large number of tool orders come out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the JPY, on the other hand, a small number is seen as negative (or bearish).

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JP Machine Tool Orders (YoY)

AU RBA Bulletin

Location: Australia

Date: 18/09/2014

Time: 02:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The Bulletin, published by Reserve Bank of Australia, contains articles and speeches that discuss economic and financial developments as well as the Bank's operations. Published monthly until December 2009 and thereafter quarterly.

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AU RBA Bulletin

UK Scottish independence referendum

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 17/09/2014

Time: 01:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: Following an agreement between the Scottish Government and the United Kingdom Government, the Scottish Independence Referendum will take place on Thursday 18 September 2014.

#END

UK Scottish independence referendum

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday renewed its pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a "considerable time," but also indicated it could raise borrowing costs faster than expected when it starts moving.

Many economists and traders had expected the U.S. central bank to alter the rate guidance it has provided since March, given generally improving data on the economy's performance.

But the Fed repeated its assurance that rates would stay ultra-low for a "considerable time" after a bond-buying stimulus program ends. In a statement after a two-day meeting of its policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, it announced a further $10 billion reduction in its monthly purchases, leaving the program on course to be shuttered next month.

The statement was virtually unchanged from July, though new quarterly projections released with it showed the central bank's view on where interest rates should be in future years is diverging from where financial markets have bet they will be.

"While the much analyzed phrase 'considerable time' remained in the FOMC statement, the newly announced scheme for interest rate normalization shows that higher rates are in the cards," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher and Philadelphia Fed chief Charles Plosser dissented, arguing the guidance on rates could tie the central bank's hands if it felt it had to move more quickly to tighten monetary policy.

The Fed has held benchmark overnight rates near zero since December 2008 and has more than quadrupled its balance sheet to $4.4 trillion through a series of large-scale bond purchase programs.

In a further sign the central bank is in no rush to start raising rates, the FOMC repeated its assessment that a "significant" amount of slack remains in the U.S. labor market.

Stocks were little changed after the statement, but the dollar hit its highest level against the Japanese yen since September 2008. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds rose to session highs as traders moved to price in the possibility of higher future rates.

The most significant change was the new rate projections, which suggested officials were positioning themselves for a potentially faster pace of rate hikes than they had envisioned when the last set of forecasts were released in June.

For the end of next year, the median projection was 1.375 percent, compared to 1.125 percent in June, while the end-2016 projection moved up to 2.875 percent from 2.50 percent. For 2017, the median stood at 3.75 percent - the level officials see as neither stimulative nor restrictive.

By contrast, December 2015 federal funds futures imply an interbank lending rate of 0.745 percent at the end of next year. Contracts for December 2016 point to a rate of 1.85 percent.

Eric Lascelles, chief economist for RBC Global Asset Management in Toronto, called the 2017 projections a "shocker."

"I would have thought it would take a few more years to get all the way up to what they perceive to be a neutral rate," he said.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen played down the shift in a news conference after the statement was released.

"I would say there is relatively little upward movement in the (federal funds rate) path," she told reporters. "I would view it as broadly in line with what one would expect with a very small downward reduction in the path for unemployment and a very slight upward change in the projection for inflation."

EXIT STRATEGY

The Fed also released a new blueprint for how it plans to exit the extraordinary monetary stimulus it put in place to combat the 2007-09 financial crisis and recession.

It said it expects to end or phase out the reinvestment of proceeds from its bond holdings some time after it begins raising rates, depending on the state of the economy.

In addition, it said it would move its target for the overnight federal funds rate by adjusting the amount it pays banks for excess reserves they hold at the central bank. Another tool, so-called overnight reverse repurchase agreements, would play a supporting role.

Prior to this week's policy meeting, several Fed officials said they were uncomfortable with the central bank's rate guidance, given that it was pegged to a calendar reference and not the economy's progress.

Many economists said it would likely get stripped from the statement after the Fed's next meeting in October.

JP Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance

Location: Japan

Date: 17/09/2014

Time: 00:50

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -��1023.841B

Notes: Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance is released by the Customs Office and it's a seasonal measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Japan is so much dependant on exports. A high reading is positive for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

JP Merchandise Trade Balance Total

Location: Japan

Date: 17/09/2014

Time: 00:50

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -��964.0B / Consensus: -��1028.9B

Notes: The Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Japan is so much dependant on exports that the Japanese economy heavily relies on a trade surplus. Therefore, any variation in the figures influences the domestic economy. If a steady demand in exchange for Japanese exports is seen, that would turn into a positive.

#END

JP Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance

Location: Japan

Date: 17/09/2014

Time: 00:50

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -Â¥1023.841B

Notes: Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance is released by the Customs Office and it's a seasonal measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Japan is so much dependant on exports. A high reading is positive for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

JP Merchandise Trade Balance Total

Location: Japan

Date: 17/09/2014

Time: 00:50

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -Â¥964.0B / Consensus: -Â¥1028.9B

Notes: The Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Japan is so much dependant on exports that the Japanese economy heavily relies on a trade surplus. Therefore, any variation in the figures influences the domestic economy. If a steady demand in exchange for Japanese exports is seen, that would turn into a positive.

#END

NZ Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

Location: New Zealand

Date: 17/09/2014

Time: 5 - T

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.0% / Consensus: 0.6%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by New Zealand. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of New Zealand economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the NZD.

#END

NZ Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

Location: New Zealand

Date: 17/09/2014

Time: 5 - T

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 3.8% / Consensus: 3.8%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by New Zealand. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of New Zealand economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the NZD.

#END

NZ Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

NZ Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

(Reuters) - Shares in online trading provider IG Group (IGG.L) fell more than 4 percent on Wednesday after it reported a drop in first-quarter revenue which it blamed on quiet financial markets.

The British company saw particularly low trading volumes in foreign exchange, where activity has been subdued over the past year by a combination of low interest rates across the developed world and an uncertain regulatory.

"The first three months of the company's year were particularly quiet in the financial markets , with volumes and volatility close to historic lows and the continuation of recent weakness in foreign exchange activity," said IG, which also provides trading in shares and financial spread-betting.

Revenue in the three months to Aug. 31 fell 9 percent to 85.6 million pounds ($139.3 million) compared with a year earlier, the company said.

It added that much of the year-on-year difference occurred in June, as the same month last year saw unusually strong trading volumes in response to heavy falls in equity markets on the back of U.S. monetary stimulus tapering fears and concerns over the Chinese economy.

IG's shares were down 4.6 percent at 575.5 pence at 1028 GMT (11:28 a.m. BST), making the company one of the biggest fallers on the FTSE index of small and mid-cap firms.

The company did not disclose its profit for the first quarter in the update. It will next publish profit figures in January when it reports its half-year results.

IG shares have fallen 3 percent so far this year, reflecting the market's caution over the short-term trading outlook, Citi analyst Hugo Mills said.

Mills, along with a number of other analysts, is expecting downgrades to consensus forecasts. The current estimate for full-year revenue is 391.4 million pounds, Thomson Reuters data shows, ahead of the 370.4 million pounds reported last year.

EXPANSION

IG Chief Executive Tim Howkins told Reuters the company had no plans to revise its full-year guidance. The company has not yet published that figure.

"I don't think it (first-quarter results) really changes our view of the year, but clearly things need to accelerate a bit to get to some of the original forecasts we had," he said.

Howkins declined to say when performance might improve, but said the first two weeks of September had been busier, with another interest rate cut in Europe and Thursday's Scottish independence referendum providing opportunities to trade.

First-quarter revenue was down across all of IG's markets, with Australia seeing the biggest decline at 10 percent. In its home market Britain, a 3 percent drop in sales was partially offset by a 5 percent rise in average revenue per client.

IG has been trying to boost that measure by appealing to clients who produce a greater share of revenue. It has extended trading hours for U.S. stocks and raised minimum deposits.

It has also been diversifying, in attempt to provide a cushion against lower trading volumes, by expanding overseas and adding new services.

This month it received a licence for a new office in Switzerland and Howkins said it could start trading there within the next week or two. It has also launched a stock-broking service in Britain and Ireland.

iNVEZZ.com, Tuesday, September 16: IG Group Holdings (LON:IGG), have announced the beginning of what is likely to be a period of establishing a new order in the servicing of retail stock market investors with the launch of a new execution only share dealing platform yesterday.

The FTSE 250 company, the market leader in the UK for spread betting and CFD brokerage has thrown down the gauntlet to the established order of traditional stockbrokers by making a direct challenge for their market, specifically targeting the active share traders which are the most lucrative client profile. The press release that accompanied the release of the new platform had a combative tone, stating that ‘online stockbroking trading platforms are basic and opaque, with users only having access to antiquated technology when investing in the stock market’.

CFD trading and spread betting were instruments available only to institutional traders before the democratisation of the internet age. Derivatives based on underlying financial instruments such as shares, currency pairs and commodities, these are leveraged products which allow traders to earn significant profits, or losses, on relatively small changes in the price of the underlying instrument. The fact that significant sums can be won and lost in the course of minutes and hours makes these products popular with high octane traders, firstly institutional investors, and now private individuals. According to Forex Magnates, in the UK there are approximately 100,000 active traders in CFDs and spread betting at any one time, and somewhere around 1.5 million globally. That compares with around 1.5 million UK-based online execution share traders according to data from market research company Mintel.

Retail-facing CFD and spread betting trading platforms have developed with the internet age and their business was born into an online model. In contrast, the major UK-based stockbrokers are almost exclusively online evolutions from established traditional telephone and postal-based stockbroking services. How well the traditional stockbrokers have adapted their business models to the online world is of course a somewhat subjective opinion but the fact of the matter is that up until now they have had little to no competition. Hargreaves Lansdown, a constituent of the FTSE 100, has a significant lion’s share of the execution only online share dealing market in the UK. This is a direct result of the company having had the most successful online strategy amongst its peers. How it will cope with a strong challenge from a competitor that is much more agile, tech savvy and experienced in client acquisition through online channels will be very interesting to see unfold.

The online battle both in terms of technology platforms, pricing and client acquisition between CFD and spread betting trading platforms has been fierce for a number of years. In the case of CFDs, it has been a competition for a global market with forex, commodities, indices and the biggest international companies comprising the bulk of trading and attracting investors from all over the world. The UK’s dominant online stockbrokers by comparison have grown out of traditional local offices. While the foresight and strategy that has seen some of them move online successfully and become companies managing billions in client assets cannot be underestimated, the challenge IG’s move into their territory poses can be considered altogether different and one that is set to shake up the industry.

It is the active DIY investor market that IG is targeting, investors buying and selling shares every month, rather than the client base who make a few adjustments to their investment portfolios every year or so. While this is the smaller part of the retail investment market it is by far the most profitable and in a market where margins have been squeezed in recent years the viability of many stockbrokers rests on their ability to retain this prized market segment.